Coronavirus ‘could kill 2,300 each DAY totaling 80,000 in US in next four months’ – The Sun

CORONAVIRUS could kill 2,300 Americans every day which could lead to 80,000 deaths in the next four months, experts say. 

The damning forecast was published on Thursday when the US death toll topped 1,000 and officials warned it could be worse here than hard-hit Italy.



Researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine analyzed the latest COVID-19 data at a local, national and international level.

They found the demand for beds and equipment may not be able to meet the demand of COVID-19 cases by the second week of April, reports

They estimate around 81,000 Americans will die from the virus in the months to come – but predictions ranged from 38,000 to over 160,000.

According to IHME's model, as many as 2,300 people could die daily when the disease peaks, despite the social distancing efforts.

IHME experts looked at hospitalization rates, mortality rates, as well as patients' age, gender, underlying conditions.

They conducted in-depth research on the time lag between the initial fatalities and officials ramping up the mitigation measures, like closing schools and shuttering businesses.

After looking at the US' ICU bed and ventilator capacity, they crunched the numbers.


The news emerged after the country's top public health official, Surgeon General Jerome Adams, said "we could be worse than Italy if we don't participate in these 15 days to stop the spread."

Likewise, the institute's director, Christopher Murray, said their trajectory was based on "uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital workers, and government agencies."

"The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions," Murray said.

"We hope these forecasts will help leaders of medical systems figure out innovative ways to deliver high-quality care to those who will need their services in the coming weeks."

Twenty-one states will need more ICU beds than are available now, IHME said – but 12 may be forced to up their capacity by 50 percent.

Hard-hit areas in New York may peak in just two weeks according to Governor Andrew Cuomo, who has repeatedly appealed for more ventilators.

The disturbing news comes as ten states are declared "disaster" areas, meaning half the US population are living in disaster zones as of Thursday, March 26.




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